Data collected by the Metrix analytical tool, which is a database for the spot market in road transport, following Brexit, demand and supply
Transport services to Great Britain have decreased, which is undoubtedly related to the rates on routes to the Islands, which have increased significantly.

In the second week of January, the demand index for road transport to Great Britain from neighboring France was 42 points, while in the corresponding period of 2020 it was 125 points. Demand in 2021 is roughly at the level of the spring pandemic low. It cannot even be compared with the December weeks, when the demand even exceeded 200 points.

Thanks to the availability of information on the portal, we provide more details below.

The period immediately following Christmas has traditionally been characterized by a decline in demand and supply for transport services, but the beginning of January was usually rebound and sustained growth. This year, the indices are still at low levels. As for the supply of transport services from France to the Islands, in the second week of 2021 it amounted to 24 points. compared to 48 points in the same period last year.

Less people willing to drive behind the English Channel
When analyzing the connections of other important transport markets with Great Britain, a similar tendency is noticeable everywhere. The transport supply index on the route from Poland was 33 points. in the first week of January and 26 p. in the next, compared to 119 points, respectively. (!!) and 83 points. in 2020. The situation is similar with the availability of transport from Germany (45 points in the second week of 2021 compared to 68 points in 2020).

On other key routes, even greater drops were recorded. Transport demand index from Italy at 25 points. it is now 65 percent. lower than in the second week of 2020 (72 points). An even greater decrease, by 74 percent. recorded the supply index on the route from the Netherlands.

The same applies to demand. The demand index on the route from Germany through the English Channel was in the second week of this year. 30 points at 109 points in the same period last year. The drop in demand on the route from Poland was minimal year to year, while shippers from Italy and the Netherlands were much less willing to order transports to the Islands.

It is worth noting that although the supply of transport is at a fairly low level on most important European routes, the demand on other routes does not differ from the standard level and trend for this period and did not show a spectacular decline compared to previous months.

All this shows that shippers are trying to wait until the post-Brexit situation calms down. Also, carriers are less willing to go to the Islands than a year ago - returning from them means standing in traffic jams, the need for drivers to test for COVID-19, and a high probability of returning empty. At the same time, the downward trend in the demand index shows that shippers are holding back shipping goods to Great Britain, probably waiting for the situation at the border to stabilize.

However, fewer people willing to transport to Great Britain mean an increase in transport rates. On the route from neighboring France, it was not so noticeable in the second week of the year (115 points compared to 107 points in 2020), but on routes from Poland or Italy this increase was significant. In the case of Poland, it was 118 points. to 94 points, and in the case of Italy 125 points. up to 86 points It is worth noting that the January rate indices are significantly above the average for the last year and, apart from the November-December pre-holiday period, they are at a higher level than any weekly rate levels in 2020.

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